Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Chika have the most kills at Worlds 2026?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $0 held · ends Dec 15
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$0.32
-$5.78
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 44%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $1.38 | $0.07 | -$1.31 | 49% 116-121 (237) |
KL klli27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $1.33 | $0.07 | -$1.26 | 28% 525-1353 (1878) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $0.97 | $0.05 | -$0.92 | 51% 4781-4575 (9356) |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $0.95 | $0.05 | -$0.9 | 28% 530-1372 (1902) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $0.94 | $0.05 | -$0.89 | 41% 3187-4522 (7709) |
PO pollo07CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $0.33 | $0.02 | -$0.31 | 28% 504-1318 (1822) |
ME merodCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $0.19 | $0.01 | -$0.18 | 82% 69-15 (84) |
Invested
$1.38
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$1.31
Record
49%
116-121 (237)
Invested
$1.33
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$1.26
Record
28%
525-1353 (1878)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$0.97
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$0.92
Record
51%
4781-4575 (9356)
Invested
$0.95
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$0.9
Record
28%
530-1372 (1902)
Invested
$0.94
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$0.89
Record
41%
3187-4522 (7709)
Invested
$0.33
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.31
Record
28%
504-1318 (1822)
Invested
$0.19
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.18
Record
82%
69-15 (84)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.