Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (74%). 10 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Cheng Chao-fang win the next Hsinchu County Magistrate election?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 27¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 29

Yes74¢No26¢Ends Sun, Nov 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

-$492.49

Smart Money Entry

58.8¢ → 26.5¢

-55% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes74%

No27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares3,384

Combined PnL-$716.67

Yes2 traders

Total Value$307.55

Total Shares471

Combined PnL+$224.18

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

504h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 91% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR	Noavg 67.9¢	$1.2K	$639.74	-$605.63	56% 16337-13076 (29413)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 38.1¢	$1.2K	$555.52	+$4.96	34% 19152-36682 (55834)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 58.1¢	$277.25	$350.54	+$25.93
└ No leg	Noavg 38.1¢	$295.02	$204.98	-$20.98
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Yesavg 17.7¢	$104.1	$263.9	+$214.8	48% 1350-1485 (2835)
DO donthackmeCTR	Noavg 76.6¢	$400.52	$167.26	-$233.26	71% 13104-5267 (18371)
CI cigarettesCTR	Noavg 37.3¢	$108.16	$76.89	-$31.27	53% 23272-20444 (43716)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Noavg 34.3¢	$73.08	$70.29	-$2.79	45% 2924-3585 (6509)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 0.5¢	$2.28	$58.35	+$159.4	41% 2341-3386 (5727)
TH TheWindKnowsmyName	Yesavg 62¢	$164.27	$43.65	+$9.38	51% 290-284 (574)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Noavg 34.5¢	$87.06	$35.78	-$11.82	20% 340-1333 (1673)
2B9SCTR<$100	Noavg 48.5¢	$26	$26.2	+$13	17% 4484-21727 (26211)
balthazarCTR	Noavg 34.7¢	$537.82	$11.36	-$0.96	52% 30722-28786 (59508)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$47.76	$5.99	-$2.64	27% 551-1528 (2079)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$4	$3.3	-$0.7	49% 9352-9925 (19277)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR

Invested

$1,245.37

Value

$639.74

PnL

-$605.63

Record

56%

16337-13076 (29413)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$1,175.68

Value

$555.52

PnL

+$4.96

Record

34%

19152-36682 (55834)

Both legs:

Yes$277.2558.1¢+$25.93

No$295.0238.1¢-$20.98

SnapElectionAvoider

Yes

Invested

$104.1

Value

$263.9

PnL

+$214.8

Record

48%

1350-1485 (2835)

donthackmeCTR

Invested

$400.52

Value

$167.26

PnL

-$233.26

Record

71%

13104-5267 (18371)

cigarettesCTR

Invested

$108.16

Value

$76.89

PnL

-$31.27

Record

53%

23272-20444 (43716)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Invested

$73.08

Value

$70.29

PnL

-$2.79

Record

45%

2924-3585 (6509)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$2.28

Value

$58.35

PnL

+$159.4

Record

41%

2341-3386 (5727)

TheWindKnowsmyName

Yes

Invested

$164.27

Value

$43.65

PnL

+$9.38

Record

51%

290-284 (574)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Invested

$87.06

Value

$35.78

PnL

-$11.82

Record

20%

340-1333 (1673)

2B9SCTR<$100

Invested

$26

Value

$26.2

PnL

+$13

Record

17%

4484-21727 (26211)

balthazarCTR

Invested

$537.82

Value

$11.36

PnL

-$0.96

Record

52%

30722-28786 (59508)

lpgbCTR<$100

Invested

$47.76

Value

$5.99

PnL

-$2.64

Record

27%

551-1528 (2079)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$3.3

PnL

-$0.7

Record

49%

9352-9925 (19277)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

504h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 91% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.3%

26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$253.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

353.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.