Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will Chase Burns win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?
Resolved No. 100% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
26
Yes 100%
$0
-$16.74
Smart Money Signal
26 of 26 top traders (100%)26 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $4.58 | — | -$4.58 | 50% 2630-2578 (5208) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | -$5.03 | 38% 16029-25855 (41884) |
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $1.47 | — | -$1.47 | 38% 2966-4743 (7709) |
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0 | — | -$0.07 | 44% 13945-17925 (31870) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $0.44 | — | -$2.05 | 49% 43869-46551 (90420) |
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $0.6 | — | -$1.25 | 34% 2142-4117 (6259) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0 | — | -$0.02 | 36% 6093-11041 (17134) |
CR crckrCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $0.58 | — | -$0.58 | 28% 797-2091 (2888) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0 | — | -$0.54 | 50% 59994-58808 (118802) |
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0 | — | -$0.53 | 45% 7018-8417 (15435) |
DO donthackmeCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | -$0.31 | 55% 39043-31788 (70831) |
AU auros2CTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | -$0.29 | — 6-1 (7) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | -$0.01 | 33% 20011-40834 (60845) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | -$0 | 28% 3048-7956 (11004) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | — | — | +$0 | 63% 33619-19478 (53097) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | — | — | +$0 | 34% 33217-64988 (98205) |
0X 0xb0e74DF9430A089Aa102e2207Af5fde1967439D2-1789545517033CTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 39% 7026-11132 (18158) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 45% 18006-22281 (40287) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 45% 3029-3730 (6759) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | — | — | +$0 | 60% 18915-12738 (31653) |
QU quietparcelCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 48% 11465-12267 (23732) |
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 46% 10314-12253 (22567) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 48% 2182-2362 (4544) |
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 37% 3313-5705 (9018) |
PL plainfolderCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 33% 4753-9831 (14584) |
Invested
$4.58
Value
—
PnL
-$4.58
Record
50%
2630-2578 (5208)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$5.03
Record
38%
16029-25855 (41884)
Invested
$1.47
Value
—
PnL
-$1.47
Record
38%
2966-4743 (7709)
Invested
$0
Value
—
PnL
-$0.07
Record
44%
13945-17925 (31870)
Invested
$0.44
Value
—
PnL
-$2.05
Record
49%
43869-46551 (90420)
Invested
$0.6
Value
—
PnL
-$1.25
Record
34%
2142-4117 (6259)
Invested
$0
Value
—
PnL
-$0.02
Record
36%
6093-11041 (17134)
Invested
$0.58
Value
—
PnL
-$0.58
Record
28%
797-2091 (2888)
Invested
$0
Value
—
PnL
-$0.54
Record
50%
59994-58808 (118802)
Invested
$0
Value
—
PnL
-$0.53
Record
45%
7018-8417 (15435)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$0.31
Record
55%
39043-31788 (70831)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$0.29
Record
—
6-1 (7)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$0.01
Record
33%
20011-40834 (60845)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$0
Record
28%
3048-7956 (11004)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
63%
33619-19478 (53097)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
34%
33217-64988 (98205)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
39%
7026-11132 (18158)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
18006-22281 (40287)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
3029-3730 (6759)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
60%
18915-12738 (31653)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
11465-12267 (23732)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
10314-12253 (22567)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
2182-2362 (4544)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
3313-5705 (9018)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
33%
4753-9831 (14584)