Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 97¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 58%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$145.62

Smart Money Entry

98.4¢ → 97.3¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,215

Combined PnL-$11.19

Yes5 traders

Total Value$560.51

Total Shares21,558

Combined PnL+$156.81

No — 58%Yes — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

4182h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

10 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 98.4¢	$721.55	$714.53	-$7.02	53% 29396-26298 (55694)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 1.8¢	$373.01	$530.76	+$157.76	41% 2052-2927 (4979)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 98.4¢	$318.91	$344.29	-$3.33	49% 8853-9361 (18214)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$56.33	$48.7	-$3.11	42% 7033-9821 (16854)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$66.52	$46.58	-$1.4	77% 12390-3803 (16193)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$46.36	$45.77	-$0.59	43% 3155-4197 (7352)
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$27.01	$26.36	-$1.66	49% 6216-6354 (12570)
CR cry.eth2<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$7.71	$7.78	+$4.22	40% 9706-14609 (24315)
IN influenz.eth<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$59.64	$7.09	+$0.03	42% 10353-14366 (24719)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$2.04	$2.21	+$0.17	35% 18318-34086 (52404)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$0.57	$0.6	+$0.03	58% 19680-14468 (34148)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.07	$0.58	+$0.51	18% 4304-20139 (24443)

balthazar

Invested

$721.55

Value

$714.53

PnL

-$7.02

Record

53%

29396-26298 (55694)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$373.01

Value

$530.76

PnL

+$157.76

Record

41%

2052-2927 (4979)

smallreceipt

Invested

$318.91

Value

$344.29

PnL

-$3.33

Record

49%

8853-9361 (18214)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$56.33

Value

$48.7

PnL

-$3.11

Record

42%

7033-9821 (16854)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$66.52

Value

$46.58

PnL

-$1.4

Record

77%

12390-3803 (16193)

merod<$100

Invested

$46.36

Value

$45.77

PnL

-$0.59

Record

43%

3155-4197 (7352)

purplegattoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.01

Value

$26.36

PnL

-$1.66

Record

49%

6216-6354 (12570)

cry.eth2<$100

Invested

$7.71

Value

$7.78

PnL

+$4.22

Record

40%

9706-14609 (24315)

influenz.eth<$100

Invested

$59.64

Value

$7.09

PnL

+$0.03

Record

42%

10353-14366 (24719)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.04

Value

$2.21

PnL

+$0.17

Record

35%

18318-34086 (52404)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.57

Value

$0.6

PnL

+$0.03

Record

58%

19680-14468 (34148)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.58

PnL

+$0.51

Record

18%

4304-20139 (24443)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

4182h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

10 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.3%

97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.