Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (65%). 1 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Chantal Soucy win the 2026 Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton by-election?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 36¢ · $617 held · ends Dec 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 17%
$616.91
$67.58
Research grade
NeutralYes at 36%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors No 65%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR | Yesavg 29.4¢ | $293.86 | $355 | +$61.14 | — 4-15 (19) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 71.4¢ | $110.13 | $109.59 | -$0.54 | 41% 3127-4493 (7620) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 67.4¢ | $50.55 | $53.25 | +$2.7 | 27% 936-2514 (3450) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 67.5¢ | $40.49 | $42.59 | +$2.1 | 51% 4707-4542 (9249) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 67.7¢ | $39.15 | $41.05 | +$1.89 | 38% 3295-5393 (8688) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $35.57 | $15.43 | +$0.28 | 51% 40-38 (78) |
Invested
$293.86
Value
$355
PnL
+$61.14
Record
—
4-15 (19)
Invested
$110.13
Value
$109.59
PnL
-$0.54
Record
41%
3127-4493 (7620)
Invested
$50.55
Value
$53.25
PnL
+$2.7
Record
27%
936-2514 (3450)
balthazar<$100Invested
$40.49
Value
$42.59
PnL
+$2.1
Record
51%
4707-4542 (9249)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$39.15
Value
$41.05
PnL
+$1.89
Record
38%
3295-5393 (8688)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$35.57
Value
$15.43
PnL
+$0.28
Record
51%
40-38 (78)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.