Will Chang San-cheng win the next Taoyuan Mayor election?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 92¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 29
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$3.1K
$205.17
86.1¢ → 92¢
+7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+5 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
319h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 FrozenParasite | Yesavg 82.6¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$175.8 | 55% 444-365 (809) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yesavg 90¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$37.33 | 56% 15238-11764 (27002) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Yesavg 92.5¢ | $72.12 | $71.81 | -$0.3 | 42% 5193-7116 (12309) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 16.2¢ | $77.27 | $30.22 | -$8.14 | 36% 14842-26964 (41806) |
TH TheFOMCGambler<$100 | Yesavg 88¢ | $10.89 | $10.95 | +$0.49 | 77% 102-31 (133) |
FrozenParasiteInvested
$1,467.07
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$175.8
Record
55%
444-365 (809)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$1,261.02
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$37.33
Record
56%
15238-11764 (27002)
Invested
$72.12
Value
$71.81
PnL
-$0.3
Record
42%
5193-7116 (12309)
Invested
$77.27
Value
$30.22
PnL
-$8.14
Record
36%
14842-26964 (41806)
Invested
$10.89
Value
$10.95
PnL
+$0.49
Record
77%
102-31 (133)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.