Will Chang Chi-kai win the next Chiayi City Mayor election?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 85¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$1.5K
$37.03
83.4¢ → 85¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Late
144h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 83.6¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$27 | 48% 1222-1315 (2537) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 84¢ | $131.25 | $133.59 | +$2.34 | 40% 3001-4411 (7412) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 81.6¢ | $85.65 | $89.77 | +$4.12 | 4% 15-322 (337) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $59.95 | $62.51 | +$2.56 | 85% 22-4 (26) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $33.2 | $34.2 | +$1 | 52% 5296-4806 (10102) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$1,170
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$27
Record
48%
1222-1315 (2537)
Invested
$131.25
Value
$133.59
PnL
+$2.34
Record
40%
3001-4411 (7412)
Invested
$85.65
Value
$89.77
PnL
+$4.12
Record
4%
15-322 (337)
Invested
$59.95
Value
$62.51
PnL
+$2.56
Record
85%
22-4 (26)
Invested
$33.2
Value
$34.2
PnL
+$1
Record
52%
5296-4806 (10102)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.