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No
IstarothCTR<$100No
LornaPredictsCTR<$100No
balthazarCTR<$100NoNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.
Will Casey Farrell win the next Derwent Valley mayoral election?
Resolved Yes. 100% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
No 100%
Total Value
$919.56
Combined PnL
-$105.13
Smart Money Signal
No
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes100%
No0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No5 traders
Total Value$919.56
Total Shares1,361
Combined PnL-$105.13
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 56.1¢ | $1.0K | $816.77 | +$120.74 | 36% 15210-27314 (42524) |
IstarothCTR<$100 | Noavg 60.9¢ | $63.78 | $62.79 | -$0.03 | 21% 292-1070 (1362) |
LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $42 | $40 | -$2 | 18% 523-2344 (2867) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 20.5¢ | $24.6 | — | -$24.6 | 61% 20914-13310 (34224) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Noavg 75.8¢ | $199.24 | — | -$199.24 | 53% 1123-1006 (2129) |
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTRInvested
$1,013.88
Value
$816.77
PnL
+$120.74
Record
36%
15210-27314 (42524)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$63.78
Value
$62.79
PnL
-$0.03
Record
21%
292-1070 (1362)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$42
Value
$40
PnL
-$2
Record
18%
523-2344 (2867)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$24.6
Value
—
PnL
-$24.6
Record
61%
20914-13310 (34224)
SN
SnapElectionAvoiderCTRInvested
$199.24
Value
—
PnL
-$199.24
Record
53%
1123-1006 (2129)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x491642f0...aba1bc
Slug
will-casey-farrell-win-the-next-derwent-valley-mayoral-election