Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 13 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Canna win Worlds 2026 Finals MVP?

13 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $3 held · ends Nov 29

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$2.55

Combined PnL

-$72.41

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes13 traders

Total Value$2.55

Total Shares5,097

Combined PnL-$72.41

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$26.87	$0.91	-$25.96	55% 56-46 (102)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$16.82	$0.57	-$16.25	53% 1614-1416 (3030)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$15.16	$0.52	-$14.65	39% 1057-1631 (2688)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$6.84	$0.23	-$6.61	51% 4781-4575 (9356)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$2.9	$0.1	-$2.8	53% 459-411 (870)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$2.11	$0.07	-$2.04	41% 3187-4522 (7709)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$1.82	$0.06	-$1.76	—
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$0.74	$0.02	-$0.71	— 3-3 (6)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$0.69	$0.02	-$0.67	55% 729-596 (1325)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$0.36	$0.01	-$0.34	20% 782-3094 (3876)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$0.29	$0.01	-$0.28	39% 3421-5409 (8830)
LE LesterDiamondCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$0.19	$0.01	-$0.19	70% 31-13 (44)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$0.15	$0.01	-$0.15	79% 502-133 (635)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.87

Value

$0.91

PnL

-$25.96

Record

55%

56-46 (102)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.82

Value

$0.57

PnL

-$16.25

Record

53%

1614-1416 (3030)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.16

Value

$0.52

PnL

-$14.65

Record

39%

1057-1631 (2688)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.84

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$6.61

Record

51%

4781-4575 (9356)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.9

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$2.8

Record

53%

459-411 (870)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.11

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$2.04

Record

41%

3187-4522 (7709)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$1.76

Record

—

GingerMcKennaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.74

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.71

Record

—

3-3 (6)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.69

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.67

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.36

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.34

Record

20%

782-3094 (3876)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.29

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.28

Record

39%

3421-5409 (8830)

LesterDiamondCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.19

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.19

Record

70%

31-13 (44)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.15

Record

79%

502-133 (635)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.