Will Candidate U be the next White House Press Secretary?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 95¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$1.3K
$12.21
93.5¢ → 95.1¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AV aviato | Noavg 93.3¢ | $922.2 | $917.76 | -$2.97 | 85% 2422-442 (2864) |
 Talophex | Noavg 96¢ | $192 | $186.6 | -$1.8 | 91% 915-94 (1009) |
 Parz1vaI<$100 | Noavg 89.9¢ | $89.58 | $92.52 | +$2.94 | 72% 3486-1330 (4816) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $4.73 | $36.1 | +$31.38 | 60% 3240-2178 (5418) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.3¢ | $53.34 | $33.76 | -$19.58 | 36% 14842-26964 (41806) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.3¢ | $3.48 | $5.72 | +$2.24 | 53% 6325-5539 (11864) |
Invested
$922.2
Value
$917.76
PnL
-$2.97
Record
85%
2422-442 (2864)
TalophexInvested
$192
Value
$186.6
PnL
-$1.8
Record
91%
915-94 (1009)
Parz1vaI<$100Invested
$89.58
Value
$92.52
PnL
+$2.94
Record
72%
3486-1330 (4816)
Invested
$4.73
Value
$36.1
PnL
+$31.38
Record
60%
3240-2178 (5418)
Invested
$53.34
Value
$33.76
PnL
-$19.58
Record
36%
14842-26964 (41806)
Invested
$3.48
Value
$5.72
PnL
+$2.24
Record
53%
6325-5539 (11864)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.