Will Candidate M win the next Taipei Mayor election?
15 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 50¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
15
Yes 100%
$12.1K
$5.7K
0.9¢ → 50¢
+5464% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
15 of 15 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
15 traders
Top 2 hold 39%
Freshness
Mature
33h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 39% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI Bigggggggg | Yesavg 1¢ | $56.12 | $2.7K | +$2.6K | 42% 3173-4329 (7502) |
 balthazar | Yes | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$0 | 53% 29396-26298 (55694) |
E4 e46m3 | Yes | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$0 | 72% 13988-5402 (19390) |
 Lucerys | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $18.26 | $1.1K | +$1.0K | 77% 12654-3874 (16528) |
ME merod | Yes | $840 | $840 | +$0 | 43% 3155-4197 (7352) |
QW qwen300.fund | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $7.4 | $732.53 | +$725.14 | 59% 11938-8372 (20310) |
KO korda77 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $1.81 | $652.5 | +$650.69 | 44% 6509-8177 (14686) |
AN anothercoin | Yes | $600 | $600 | +$0 | 50% 706-713 (1419) |
PO pollo07 | Yes | $495.74 | $495.74 | +$0 | 33% 461-944 (1405) |
FO forgotmydinner | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $13.45 | $390 | +$376.55 | 17% 89-436 (525) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271 | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $12.12 | $317.45 | +$305.32 | 27% 6898-18905 (25803) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Yes | $274.45 | $274.45 | +$0 | 35% 18318-34086 (52404) |
PI PiEDawg | Yesavg 0¢ | $0 | $219.58 | +$0 | 49% 1759-1844 (3603) |
VA Vale54holi<$100 | Yes | $89.51 | $89.51 | +$0 | 33% 307-630 (937) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Yes | $32.46 | $32.46 | +$0 | 18% 351-1601 (1952) |
Invested
$56.12
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$2.6K
Record
42%
3173-4329 (7502)
balthazarInvested
$2,001.24
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
29396-26298 (55694)
Invested
$1,649.51
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$0
Record
72%
13988-5402 (19390)
LucerysInvested
$18.26
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$1.0K
Record
77%
12654-3874 (16528)
Invested
$840
Value
$840
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
3155-4197 (7352)
Invested
$7.4
Value
$732.53
PnL
+$725.14
Record
59%
11938-8372 (20310)
Invested
$1.81
Value
$652.5
PnL
+$650.69
Record
44%
6509-8177 (14686)
Invested
$600
Value
$600
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
706-713 (1419)
Invested
$495.74
Value
$495.74
PnL
+$0
Record
33%
461-944 (1405)
Invested
$13.45
Value
$390
PnL
+$376.55
Record
17%
89-436 (525)
Invested
$12.12
Value
$317.45
PnL
+$305.32
Record
27%
6898-18905 (25803)
Invested
$274.45
Value
$274.45
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
18318-34086 (52404)
Invested
$0
Value
$219.58
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
1759-1844 (3603)
Invested
$89.51
Value
$89.51
PnL
+$0
Record
33%
307-630 (937)
Invested
$32.46
Value
$32.46
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
351-1601 (1952)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.