Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (22%) · No at 85¢ · $921 held · ends Jan 19, 2027

Yes15¢No85¢Ends Tue, Jan 19, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 22%

Total Value

$921.35

Combined PnL

$265.06

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes15%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$410.13

Total Shares610

Combined PnL+$138.36

Yes7 traders

Total Value$511.23

Total Shares1,559

Combined PnL+$126.7

No — 22%Yes — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

586h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754	Noavg 60¢	$240.2	$369.04	+$128.84	55% 17-14 (31)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 25.2¢	$341.55	$288.73	+$183.8	34% 19319-36895 (56214)
HaradwaithCTR	Yesavg 22.8¢	$62.19	$145.94	-$29.06	40% 6547-9828 (16375)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100	No	$41.09	$41.09	+$9.52	56% 18829-14990 (33819)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 28.7¢	$28.18	$32.2	-$13.54	26% 7339-21104 (28443)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.6¢	$38	$28.55	-$9.45	17% 1350-6561 (7911)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 30.1¢	$12.07	$6.59	-$2.12	53% 8594-7671 (16265)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 35.2¢	$7.04	$6.56	-$4.21	42% 2356-3223 (5579)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.9¢	$1.37	$2.65	+$1.27	33% 6997-13986 (20983)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754

Invested

$240.2

Value

$369.04

PnL

+$128.84

Record

55%

17-14 (31)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$341.55

Value

$288.73

PnL

+$183.8

Record

34%

19319-36895 (56214)

HaradwaithCTR

Yes

Invested

$62.19

Value

$145.94

PnL

-$29.06

Record

40%

6547-9828 (16375)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100

Invested

$41.09

Value

$41.09

PnL

+$9.52

Record

56%

18829-14990 (33819)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.18

Value

$32.2

PnL

-$13.54

Record

26%

7339-21104 (28443)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38

Value

$28.55

PnL

-$9.45

Record

17%

1350-6561 (7911)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.07

Value

$6.59

PnL

-$2.12

Record

53%

8594-7671 (16265)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.04

Value

$6.56

PnL

-$4.21

Record

42%

2356-3223 (5579)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.37

Value

$2.65

PnL

+$1.27

Record

33%

6997-13986 (20983)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

586h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.3%

84.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.