Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 3.0% and 3.4%?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 62¢ · $476 held · ends Jan 18, 2027

Yes38¢No62¢Ends Mon, Jan 18, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$475.88

Combined PnL

-$63.86

Smart Money Entry

61.7¢ → 62.4¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes38%

No62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$272.12

Total Shares518

Combined PnL-$103.29

Yes4 traders

Total Value$203.76

Total Shares429

Combined PnL+$39.43

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

72h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 61.6¢	$610.79	$264.24	-$102.57	34% 19319-36895 (56214)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.6¢	$25.24	$76.86	+$42.82	47% 1357-1500 (2857)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 38.6¢	$80.62	$75.55	-$9.58	53% 8594-7671 (16265)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 38.1¢	$37.36	$46.64	+$2.37	26% 7339-21104 (28443)
Anjun<$100	Noavg 63.7¢	$8.6	$7.88	-$0.72	55% 5188-4275 (9463)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$0.89	$4.71	+$3.82	17% 4501-22036 (26537)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$610.79

Value

$264.24

PnL

-$102.57

Record

34%

19319-36895 (56214)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.24

Value

$76.86

PnL

+$42.82

Record

47%

1357-1500 (2857)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.62

Value

$75.55

PnL

-$9.58

Record

53%

8594-7671 (16265)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.36

Value

$46.64

PnL

+$2.37

Record

26%

7339-21104 (28443)

Anjun<$100

Invested

$8.6

Value

$7.88

PnL

-$0.72

Record

55%

5188-4275 (9463)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.89

Value

$4.71

PnL

+$3.82

Record

17%

4501-22036 (26537)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

72h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.5%

62.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$55.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

155.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.