Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (74%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will "Can I Get A..." be played at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 26¢ · $167 held · ends Feb 15, 2027

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Mon, Feb 15, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$167.21

Combined PnL

-$8

Research grade

AvoidYes at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$40.87

Total Shares34

Combined PnL-$4.12

Yes2 traders

Total Value$12.97

Total Shares45

Combined PnL-$3.87

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Yesavg 31.5¢	$116.25	$113.37	-$2.88	41% 3022-4424 (7446)
└ No leg	Noavg 63¢	$50	$58.73	+$8.73
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 31.5¢	$66.25	$54.64	-$11.61
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 72¢	$45	$40.87	-$4.12	15% 13-72 (85)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$17.49	$8.03	-$2.98	— 0-12 (12)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 30.7¢	$5.84	$4.94	-$0.9	50% 274-269 (543)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$116.25

Value

$113.37

PnL

-$2.88

Record

41%

3022-4424 (7446)

Both legs:

No$5063¢+$8.73

Yes$66.2531.5¢-$11.61

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$45

Value

$40.87

PnL

-$4.12

Record

15%

13-72 (85)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.49

Value

$8.03

PnL

-$2.98

Record

—

0-12 (12)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.84

Value

$4.94

PnL

-$0.9

Record

50%

274-269 (543)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.0%

26.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$257.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

357.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.