Will Cameron Boozer win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 62¢ · $468 held · ends May 1, 2027

Yes38¢No62¢Ends Sat, May 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$467.82

Combined PnL

$203.37

Smart Money Entry

71.3¢ → 62¢

-13% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes38%

No62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$283.8

Total Shares732

Combined PnL+$304.54

No4 traders

Total Value$184.02

Total Shares290

Combined PnL-$101.17

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

171h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (10 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 80% · 5

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$77.17	$150.47	+$71.38	52% 5916-5516 (11432)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 72.4¢	$460.4	$149.72	-$98.2	35% 17355-32033 (49388)
SU suntoriCTR	Yesavg 23.1¢	$68.27	$104.83	+$36.56	45% 13396-16320 (29716)
GI GingerMcKenna<$100	Noavg 62¢	$18.63	$18.48	-$0.15	39% 3004-4778 (7782)
ND ndb1<$100	Noavg 75¢	$15.52	$12.73	-$2.79	66% 918-479 (1397)
DO donthackmeCTR	Yesavg 1.2¢	$420.71	$9.02	+$142.91	74% 12150-4326 (16476)
MD mde4life1986CTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$8.52	$8.76	+$0.23	47% 161-178 (339)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$95.23	$8.1	+$50.98	72% 12562-4974 (17536)
JO JordanMooney<$100	Noavg 62¢	$3.11	$3.08	-$0.03	36% 1962-3489 (5451)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.15	$2.62	+$2.48	43% 3030-3984 (7014)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Yes

Invested

$77.17

Value

$150.47

PnL

+$71.38

Record

52%

5916-5516 (11432)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$460.4

Value

$149.72

PnL

-$98.2

Record

35%

17355-32033 (49388)

suntoriCTR

Yes

Invested

$68.27

Value

$104.83

PnL

+$36.56

Record

45%

13396-16320 (29716)

GingerMcKenna<$100

Invested

$18.63

Value

$18.48

PnL

-$0.15

Record

39%

3004-4778 (7782)

ndb1<$100

Invested

$15.52

Value

$12.73

PnL

-$2.79

Record

66%

918-479 (1397)

donthackmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$420.71

Value

$9.02

PnL

+$142.91

Record

74%

12150-4326 (16476)

mde4life1986CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.52

Value

$8.76

PnL

+$0.23

Record

47%

161-178 (339)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$95.23

Value

$8.1

PnL

+$50.98

Record

72%

12562-4974 (17536)

JordanMooney<$100

Invested

$3.11

Value

$3.08

PnL

-$0.03

Record

36%

1962-3489 (5451)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$2.62

PnL

+$2.48

Record

43%

3030-3984 (7014)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

171h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (10 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 80% · 5

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.2%

62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$55.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

155.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.