Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will Cambodia win the public vote for Eurovision Asia 2026?
Resolved No. 85% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
13
Yes 75%
$37.02
-$16.93
Smart Money Signal
11 of 13 top traders (85%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $30 | +$0.03 | 27% 1031-2734 (3765) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $7.01 | $7.02 | +$0.01 | 31% 1057-2405 (3462) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $8.92 | — | -$8.92 | 39% 3661-5820 (9481) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $2.5 | — | -$2.5 | 43% 5103-6732 (11835) |
QU quietparcelCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $1.28 | — | -$1.28 | 34% 238-461 (699) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $30.59 | — | -$2.1 | 35% 3807-6929 (10736) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $0.81 | — | -$0.81 | 26% 715-2057 (2772) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $9.78 | — | -$0.6 | 29% 3215-8065 (11280) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $0.63 | — | -$0.61 | 30% 197-458 (655) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0.01 | 30% 733-1717 (2450) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $0.16 | — | -$0.15 | 37% 1544-2643 (4187) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 9% 15-143 (158) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 17% 25-124 (149) |
Invested
$29.97
Value
$30
PnL
+$0.03
Record
27%
1031-2734 (3765)
Invested
$7.01
Value
$7.02
PnL
+$0.01
Record
31%
1057-2405 (3462)
Invested
$8.92
Value
—
PnL
-$8.92
Record
39%
3661-5820 (9481)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$2.5
Value
—
PnL
-$2.5
Record
43%
5103-6732 (11835)
Invested
$1.28
Value
—
PnL
-$1.28
Record
34%
238-461 (699)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$30.59
Value
—
PnL
-$2.1
Record
35%
3807-6929 (10736)
Invested
$0.81
Value
—
PnL
-$0.81
Record
26%
715-2057 (2772)
Invested
$9.78
Value
—
PnL
-$0.6
Record
29%
3215-8065 (11280)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$0.63
Value
—
PnL
-$0.61
Record
30%
197-458 (655)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0.01
Record
30%
733-1717 (2450)
Invested
$0.16
Value
—
PnL
-$0.15
Record
37%
1544-2643 (4187)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
9%
15-143 (158)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
17%
25-124 (149)