Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Cambodia win Eurovision Asia 2026?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $149 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$148.57

Combined PnL

-$30.35

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$146.39

Total Shares147

Combined PnL+$0.03

Yes5 traders

Total Value$2.17

Total Shares869

Combined PnL-$30.38

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$74.78	$74.81	+$0.04	29% 1096-2660 (3756)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$36.72	$36.67	-$0.06	53% 6922-6099 (13021)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$29.88	$29.93	+$0.05	34% 231-458 (689)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$4.99	$4.99	+$0	39% 220-343 (563)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$21.36	$1.71	-$19.65	39% 3605-5672 (9277)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$3.13	$0.25	-$2.88	12% 20-145 (165)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$2.62	$0.16	-$2.38	31% 146-327 (473)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$0.5	$0.04	-$0.46	44% 5045-6487 (11532)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$5.18	$0.01	-$5.01	52% 1637-1538 (3175)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$74.78

Value

$74.81

PnL

+$0.04

Record

29%

1096-2660 (3756)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$36.72

Value

$36.67

PnL

-$0.06

Record

53%

6922-6099 (13021)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$29.88

Value

$29.93

PnL

+$0.05

Record

34%

231-458 (689)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$4.99

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

220-343 (563)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.36

Value

$1.71

PnL

-$19.65

Record

39%

3605-5672 (9277)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.13

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$2.88

Record

12%

20-145 (165)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.62

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$2.38

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.5

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.46

Record

44%

5045-6487 (11532)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.18

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$5.01

Record

52%

1637-1538 (3175)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7523.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

7623.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.