Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will C win the OK-05 House seat?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $6 held · ended Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 100%
$6.17
$0
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.9¢ | $5.02 | $5.02 | +$0 | 59% 11786-8040 (19826) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $0.91 | $0.91 | +$0 | 72% 13908-5278 (19186) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $0.21 | $0.21 | +$0 | 32% 2469-5347 (7816) |
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.04 | $0.04 | +$0 | 52% 6246-5776 (12022) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 35% 18059-33813 (51872) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 39% 1066-1669 (2735) |
Invested
$5.02
Value
$5.02
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
11786-8040 (19826)
Invested
$0.91
Value
$0.91
PnL
+$0
Record
72%
13908-5278 (19186)
Invested
$0.21
Value
$0.21
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
2469-5347 (7816)
Invested
$0.04
Value
$0.04
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
6246-5776 (12022)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
18059-33813 (51872)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
39%
1066-1669 (2735)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.