Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will ByteDance have the best AI model on December 15, 2026?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $164 held · ends Dec 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Dec 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$163.72

Combined PnL

-$25.11

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$159.84

Total Shares160

Combined PnL+$0.63

Yes6 traders

Total Value$3.87

Total Shares703

Combined PnL-$25.73

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$99.32	$99.9	+$0.58	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.93	$29.97	+$0.04	29% 185-443 (628)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.97	+$0	30% 989-2362 (3351)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$13.07	$2.48	-$10.6	39% 3479-5356 (8835)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$43.03	$0.66	-$3.51	45% 4955-6107 (11062)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.6¢	$21.26	$0.33	-$1.18	30% 108-251 (359)
iutwpfalCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$1	$0.19	-$0.81	— 10-4 (14)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.57	$0.11	-$0.46	8% 9-109 (118)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$18.27	$0.1	-$9.17	18% 838-3799 (4637)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$99.32

Value

$99.9

PnL

+$0.58

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$29.93

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0.04

Record

29%

185-443 (628)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

989-2362 (3351)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.07

Value

$2.48

PnL

-$10.6

Record

39%

3479-5356 (8835)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.03

Value

$0.66

PnL

-$3.51

Record

45%

4955-6107 (11062)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.26

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$1.18

Record

30%

108-251 (359)

iutwpfalCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$0.81

Record

—

10-4 (14)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.57

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$0.46

Record

9-109 (118)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.27

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$9.17

Record

18%

838-3799 (4637)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6107.17

Max Loss

-$100.00

6207.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.