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4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $214 held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$213.64
-$0.51
99.9¢ → 99.6¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR graynotebook19 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $109.89 | $109.51 | -$0.38 | 26% 858-2483 (3341) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $69.49 | $69.29 | -$0.2 | 37% 3176-5375 (8551) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $19.91 | -$0.07 | 30% 2678-6206 (8884) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $14.75 | $14.69 | -$0.05 | 24% 75-243 (318) |
BU buoysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.05 | $0.25 | +$0.19 | — 0-11 (11) |
Invested
$109.89
Value
$109.51
PnL
-$0.38
Record
26%
858-2483 (3341)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$69.49
Value
$69.29
PnL
-$0.2
Record
37%
3176-5375 (8551)
Invested
$19.98
Value
$19.91
PnL
-$0.07
Record
30%
2678-6206 (8884)
Invested
$14.75
Value
$14.69
PnL
-$0.05
Record
24%
75-243 (318)
Invested
$0.05
Value
$0.25
PnL
+$0.19
Record
—
0-11 (11)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.