Will Bruno Mars be the top artist in the US for 2026?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $33 held · ends Dec 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$33.21

Combined PnL

-$7.47

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$29.78

Total Shares30

Combined PnL-$0.13

Yes2 traders

Total Value$3.44

Total Shares458

Combined PnL-$7.34

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$19.94	$19.85	-$0.09	42% 7028-9819 (16847)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$9.97	$9.93	-$0.04	42% 3180-4317 (7497)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$8.03	$2.41	-$5.62	48% 1884-2013 (3897)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$2.74	$1.03	-$1.71	35% 18159-34016 (52175)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$19.94

Value

$19.85

PnL

-$0.09

Record

42%

7028-9819 (16847)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$9.97

Value

$9.93

PnL

-$0.04

Record

42%

3180-4317 (7497)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.03

Value

$2.41

PnL

-$5.62

Record

48%

1884-2013 (3897)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.74

Value

$1.03

PnL

-$1.71

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.