Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Broad Front (FA) win the most seats in Santa Cruz de Tenerife in the 2026 Spanish general election?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (78%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $23 held · ends Nov 30
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
9
Yes 78%
$22.53
-$25.6
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 49%
Freshness
Late
58h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $13.99 | $13.99 | +$0.01 | 53% 7213-6305 (13518) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $13.44 | $8.17 | -$5.27 | 35% 3830-6996 (10826) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $6.1 | $0.11 | -$5.99 | 43% 5134-6831 (11965) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $3.73 | $0.07 | -$3.66 | 37% 1569-2700 (4269) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $3.61 | $0.07 | -$3.55 | 42% 2644-3715 (6359) |
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $2.92 | $0.05 | -$2.86 | 42% 1658-2297 (3955) |
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $2.36 | $0.03 | -$2.31 | 33% 313-636 (949) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $1.59 | $0.03 | -$1.56 | 31% 229-507 (736) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $0.41 | $0.01 | -$0.4 | 39% 3708-5917 (9625) |
Invested
$13.99
Value
$13.99
PnL
+$0.01
Record
53%
7213-6305 (13518)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$13.44
Value
$8.17
PnL
-$5.27
Record
35%
3830-6996 (10826)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$6.1
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$5.99
Record
43%
5134-6831 (11965)
Invested
$3.73
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$3.66
Record
37%
1569-2700 (4269)
Invested
$3.61
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$3.55
Record
42%
2644-3715 (6359)
Invested
$2.92
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$2.86
Record
42%
1658-2297 (3955)
Invested
$2.36
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$2.31
Record
33%
313-636 (949)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$1.59
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$1.56
Record
31%
229-507 (736)
Invested
$0.41
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.4
Record
39%
3708-5917 (9625)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.