Will Broad Front (FA) win 6-8 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 93¢ · $337 held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$337.1
$18.17
96¢ → 92.8¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894 | Noavg 96¢ | $216 | $215.94 | -$0.06 | 13% 50-327 (377) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $86.37 | $86.37 | +$0 | 50% 4584-4495 (9079) |
 viniiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $13.74 | $31.92 | +$18.18 | — 5-1 (6) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.2¢ | $1.3 | $1.56 | +$0.26 | 51% 80-78 (158) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.3¢ | $1.52 | $1.32 | -$0.2 | 41% 3090-4455 (7545) |
Invested
$216
Value
$215.94
PnL
-$0.06
Record
13%
50-327 (377)
balthazar<$100Invested
$86.37
Value
$86.37
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
4584-4495 (9079)
viniiCTR<$100Invested
$13.74
Value
$31.92
PnL
+$18.18
Record
—
5-1 (6)
Invested
$1.3
Value
$1.56
PnL
+$0.26
Record
51%
80-78 (158)
Invested
$1.52
Value
$1.32
PnL
-$0.2
Record
41%
3090-4455 (7545)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.