Will Broad Front (FA) win 18 or more seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 98¢ · $266 held · ends Nov 30

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Mon, Nov 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

Total Value

$265.68

Combined PnL

-$51.69

Smart Money Entry

98.8¢ → 98.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$260.54

Total Shares263

Combined PnL-$4.26

Yes5 traders

Total Value$5.14

Total Shares332

Combined PnL-$47.43

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

66h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU quietparcel	Noavg 98.9¢	$222.48	$222.75	+$0.27	36% 265-479 (744)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99¢	$16.78	$16.78	+$0	53% 7196-6292 (13488)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	$17.61	$11.11	-$4.53	39% 3706-5907 (9613)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99¢	$9.9	$9.9	+$0	33% 309-636 (945)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$19.83	$1.84	-$17.99	32% 224-485 (709)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$1.89	$1.48	-$0.41	14% 93-568 (661)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$14.98	$1.39	-$13.59	43% 5129-6814 (11943)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$0.28	$0.39	+$0.11	40% 254-374 (628)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$16.67	$0.03	-$15.56	35% 3825-6979 (10804)

quietparcel

Invested

$222.48

Value

$222.75

PnL

+$0.27

Record

36%

265-479 (744)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$16.78

Value

$16.78

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

7196-6292 (13488)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$17.61

Value

$11.11

PnL

-$4.53

Record

39%

3706-5907 (9613)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$9.9

Value

$9.9

PnL

+$0

Record

33%

309-636 (945)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.83

Value

$1.84

PnL

-$17.99

Record

32%

224-485 (709)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.89

Value

$1.48

PnL

-$0.41

Record

14%

93-568 (661)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.98

Value

$1.39

PnL

-$13.59

Record

43%

5129-6814 (11943)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.28

Value

$0.39

PnL

+$0.11

Record

40%

254-374 (628)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.67

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$15.56

Record

35%

3825-6979 (10804)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

66h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.