Will Broad Front (FA) win 12-14 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 64¢ · $603 held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$602.7
$59.66
72.9¢ → 64¢
-12% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Mature
22h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 viniiCTR | Yesavg 21.8¢ | $161.81 | $266.61 | +$104.8 | — 0-1 (1) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 73¢ | $209.29 | $183.61 | -$25.68 | 41% 2924-4137 (7061) |
 Haradwaith | Noavg 72¢ | $116.63 | $103.67 | -$12.96 | — 3-6 (9) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $35.1 | $28.8 | -$6.3 | — 1-9 (10) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $20.2 | $20 | -$0.2 | — 1-10 (11) |
viniiCTRInvested
$161.81
Value
$266.61
PnL
+$104.8
Record
—
0-1 (1)
Invested
$209.29
Value
$183.61
PnL
-$25.68
Record
41%
2924-4137 (7061)
HaradwaithInvested
$116.63
Value
$103.67
PnL
-$12.96
Record
—
3-6 (9)
Invested
$35.1
Value
$28.8
PnL
-$6.3
Record
—
1-9 (10)
Invested
$20.2
Value
$20
PnL
-$0.2
Record
—
1-10 (11)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.