Will Brazil's Q3 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be less than -0.3%?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 55¢ · $297 held · ends Dec 2

Yes45¢No55¢Ends Wed, Dec 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$297.33

Combined PnL

$6.21

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes45%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$64.89

Total Shares81

Combined PnL+$6.6

Yes2 traders

Total Value$10.05

Total Shares25

Combined PnL-$0.39

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Yesavg 45.5¢	$226.07	$222.38	+$3.95	41% 3141-4503 (7644)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 45.5¢	$129.31	$126.63	-$2.33
└ No leg	Noavg 51.8¢	$89.47	$95.75	+$6.28
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Noavg 56.6¢	$41.21	$40.99	-$0.22	10% 3-28 (31)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 42.9¢	$17.09	$23.9	+$6.81	17% 66-330 (396)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 41.1¢	$8.22	$8	-$0.22	48% 96-103 (199)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 44.3¢	$2.22	$2.05	-$0.16	53% 5734-5130 (10864)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$226.07

Value

$222.38

PnL

+$3.95

Record

41%

3141-4503 (7644)

Both legs:

Yes$129.3145.5¢-$2.33

No$89.4751.8¢+$6.28

SulkingCrypto<$100

Invested

$41.21

Value

$40.99

PnL

-$0.22

Record

10%

3-28 (31)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$17.09

Value

$23.9

PnL

+$6.81

Record

17%

66-330 (396)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.22

Value

PnL

-$0.22

Record

48%

96-103 (199)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.22

Value

$2.05

PnL

-$0.16

Record

53%

5734-5130 (10864)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.37

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.