Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 72¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 13, 2027

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Wed, Jan 13, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 85%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$313.9

Smart Money Entry

59.8¢ → 71.9¢

+20% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,266

Combined PnL+$308.47

Yes2 traders

Total Value$13.02

Total Shares45

Combined PnL+$5.43

No — 85%Yes — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

285h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 91% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754	Noavg 61.9¢	$765.84	$874.8	+$155.95	55% 17-14 (31)
12 123987456	Noavg 73.7¢	$226.96	$217.75	-$9.21	43% 2311-3103 (5414)
10 101456	Noavg 6¢	$16.57	$198.48	+$181.9	52% 150-138 (288)
GR graynotebook19	Noavg 72.9¢	$142.14	$137.96	-$4.18	58% 15784-11478 (27262)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 83.9¢	$83.88	$70.72	-$13.16	53% 23469-20698 (44167)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 79.8¢	$71.85	$63.68	-$8.17	46% 9372-11125 (20497)
CR cry.eth2<$100	Noavg 94.6¢	$34.72	$20.71	+$9.1	39% 10135-15757 (25892)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 77.8¢	$16.34	$14.86	-$1.48	58% 16798-12127 (28925)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 72.2¢	$14.23	$13.94	-$0.29	47% 3792-4260 (8052)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100	Yesavg 19.6¢	$7.56	$11.28	+$3.72	37% 3273-5670 (8943)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 80.3¢	$8.03	$7.08	-$0.95	43% 10588-14062 (24650)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 70.4¢	$8.88	$3.53	-$1.03	77% 12683-3867 (16550)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.02	$1.74	+$1.71	17% 4487-21969 (26456)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754

Invested

$765.84

Value

$874.8

PnL

+$155.95

Record

55%

17-14 (31)

123987456

Invested

$226.96

Value

$217.75

PnL

-$9.21

Record

43%

2311-3103 (5414)

101456

Invested

$16.57

Value

$198.48

PnL

+$181.9

Record

52%

150-138 (288)

graynotebook19

Invested

$142.14

Value

$137.96

PnL

-$4.18

Record

58%

15784-11478 (27262)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$83.88

Value

$70.72

PnL

-$13.16

Record

53%

23469-20698 (44167)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$71.85

Value

$63.68

PnL

-$8.17

Record

46%

9372-11125 (20497)

cry.eth2<$100

Invested

$34.72

Value

$20.71

PnL

+$9.1

Record

39%

10135-15757 (25892)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$16.34

Value

$14.86

PnL

-$1.48

Record

58%

16798-12127 (28925)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$14.23

Value

$13.94

PnL

-$0.29

Record

47%

3792-4260 (8052)

GingerMcKennaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.56

Value

$11.28

PnL

+$3.72

Record

37%

3273-5670 (8943)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$8.03

Value

$7.08

PnL

-$0.95

Record

43%

10588-14062 (24650)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$8.88

Value

$3.53

PnL

-$1.03

Record

77%

12683-3867 (16550)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$1.74

PnL

+$1.71

Record

17%

4487-21969 (26456)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

285h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 91% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.8%

71.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.