Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (59%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 41¢ · $240 held · ends Jan 13, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$239.94
-$63.33
55¢ → 41¢
-25% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 51%
Freshness
Late
398h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 58.8¢ | $86.23 | $61.58 | -$24.65 | 40% 2992-4404 (7396) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Noavg 45.5¢ | $65.18 | $60.2 | -$4.98 | 25% 806-2476 (3282) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Noavg 65.2¢ | $84.69 | $46.15 | -$24.63 | — 3-6 (9) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Noavg 48.7¢ | $43.83 | $37.8 | -$6.03 | 28% 2400-6141 (8541) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $20.79 | $21.61 | +$0.82 | — 1-9 (10) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Noavg 56.8¢ | $12.5 | $9.24 | -$3.26 | 17% 10-48 (58) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Noavg 56.7¢ | $8.07 | $3.36 | -$0.61 | — 0-12 (12) |
Invested
$86.23
Value
$61.58
PnL
-$24.65
Record
40%
2992-4404 (7396)
Invested
$65.18
Value
$60.2
PnL
-$4.98
Record
25%
806-2476 (3282)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$84.69
Value
$46.15
PnL
-$24.63
Record
—
3-6 (9)
Invested
$43.83
Value
$37.8
PnL
-$6.03
Record
28%
2400-6141 (8541)
Invested
$20.79
Value
$21.61
PnL
+$0.82
Record
—
1-9 (10)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$12.5
Value
$9.24
PnL
-$3.26
Record
17%
10-48 (58)
Invested
$8.07
Value
$3.36
PnL
-$0.61
Record
—
0-12 (12)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.