Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.00% and 4.49%?

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 99¢ · $592 held · ends Jan 12, 2027

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Tue, Jan 12, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 58%

Total Value

$592.08

Combined PnL

$228.58

Smart Money Entry

79.2¢ → 98.8¢

+25% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$588.66

Total Shares588

Combined PnL+$235.38

Yes5 traders

Total Value$3.24

Total Shares256

Combined PnL-$6.8

No — 58%Yes — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 72.8¢	$288.68	$260.3	-$3.54	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
CR cry.eth2	Noavg 64.9¢	$123.67	$143.84	+$194.1	40% 9714-14610 (24324)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 99.5¢	$103.41	$99.36	+$44.55	53% 22636-19888 (42524)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$39.83	$39.48	-$0.35	42% 7028-9819 (16847)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$29.76	$29.61	-$0.15	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 95.5¢	$9.55	$9.87	+$0.32	31% 3488-7778 (11266)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 91.6¢	$5.75	$6.2	+$0.45	49% 8853-9359 (18212)
viniiCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$4	$1.35	-$2.75	73% 2906-1075 (3981)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.31	$0.81	+$0.51	20% 2590-10277 (12867)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.7¢	$74.04	$0.64	-$1.41	36% 2021-3600 (5621)
0X 0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$3.22	$0.39	-$2.83	48% 23-25 (48)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yes	$0.05	$0.05	-$0.32	44% 2192-2843 (5035)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$288.68

Value

$260.3

PnL

-$3.54

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

cry.eth2

Invested

$123.67

Value

$143.84

PnL

+$194.1

Record

40%

9714-14610 (24324)

cigarettes

Invested

$103.41

Value

$99.36

PnL

+$44.55

Record

53%

22636-19888 (42524)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$39.83

Value

$39.48

PnL

-$0.35

Record

42%

7028-9819 (16847)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$29.76

Value

$29.61

PnL

-$0.15

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$9.55

Value

$9.87

PnL

+$0.32

Record

31%

3488-7778 (11266)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$5.75

Value

$6.2

PnL

+$0.45

Record

49%

8853-9359 (18212)

viniiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.35

PnL

-$2.75

Record

73%

2906-1075 (3981)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.31

Value

$0.81

PnL

+$0.51

Record

20%

2590-10277 (12867)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.04

Value

$0.64

PnL

-$1.41

Record

36%

2021-3600 (5621)

0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.22

Value

$0.39

PnL

-$2.83

Record

48%

23-25 (48)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.32

Record

44%

2192-2843 (5035)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.8%

98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.