Will Bournemouth win the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League Championship?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 83¢ · $353 held · ends Jun 19, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$353.09
-$1.9
84.6¢ → 83.5¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 63%
Freshness
Late
471h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 84¢ | $146.13 | $147.76 | +$1.63 | 41% 3107-4462 (7569) |
 Haradwaith | Noavg 83.3¢ | $106.55 | $67.56 | +$0.27 | 51% 32-31 (63) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 85.9¢ | $68.69 | $66.73 | -$1.96 | 51% 4631-4518 (9149) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 85.9¢ | $64.4 | $62.59 | -$1.81 | 16% 63-330 (393) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 83.6¢ | $6.81 | $6.79 | -$0.01 | 53% 5633-5071 (10704) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 84.4¢ | $1.68 | $1.66 | -$0.02 | 26% 1230-3522 (4752) |
Invested
$146.13
Value
$147.76
PnL
+$1.63
Record
41%
3107-4462 (7569)
HaradwaithInvested
$106.55
Value
$67.56
PnL
+$0.27
Record
51%
32-31 (63)
balthazar<$100Invested
$68.69
Value
$66.73
PnL
-$1.96
Record
51%
4631-4518 (9149)
Invested
$64.4
Value
$62.59
PnL
-$1.81
Record
16%
63-330 (393)
Invested
$6.81
Value
$6.79
PnL
-$0.01
Record
53%
5633-5071 (10704)
Invested
$1.68
Value
$1.66
PnL
-$0.02
Record
26%
1230-3522 (4752)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.