Will Borussia Dortmund be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion?

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 93¢ · $1K held

Yes7¢No93¢View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 58%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$9.69

Smart Money Entry

93.6¢ → 93¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,288

Combined PnL+$3.27

Yes5 traders

Total Value$74.08

Total Shares1,347

Combined PnL+$6.42

No — 58%Yes — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KO korda77	Noavg 93.7¢	$295.84	$298.2	+$2.37	44% 6482-8172 (14654)
UbuntuTrading	Noavg 92.8¢	$294.34	$294.34	+$0	55% 3145-2528 (5673)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 93¢	$190.21	$190.21	+$0	45% 2824-3398 (6222)
ME merod	Noavg 94¢	$182.09	$183.06	+$0.97	43% 3133-4188 (7321)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 94.9¢	$180.3	$179.55	-$0.75	49% 8853-9359 (18212)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 93.9¢	$66.27	$66.72	+$0.45	42% 7028-9819 (16847)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$27	$33	+$6	41% 2019-2860 (4879)
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$28.27	$28.27	+$0	49% 6204-6345 (12549)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.2¢	$8.96	$9.53	+$0.57	42% 1516-2129 (3645)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 93¢	$5.62	$4.75	+$0.23	58% 19471-14317 (33788)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$3	$2.75	-$0.25	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$1.44	$0.53	+$0.1	77% 12312-3779 (16091)

korda77

Invested

$295.84

Value

$298.2

PnL

+$2.37

Record

44%

6482-8172 (14654)

UbuntuTrading

Invested

$294.34

Value

$294.34

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

3145-2528 (5673)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$190.21

Value

$190.21

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

2824-3398 (6222)

merod

Invested

$182.09

Value

$183.06

PnL

+$0.97

Record

43%

3133-4188 (7321)

smallreceipt

Invested

$180.3

Value

$179.55

PnL

-$0.75

Record

49%

8853-9359 (18212)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$66.27

Value

$66.72

PnL

+$0.45

Record

42%

7028-9819 (16847)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27

Value

$33

PnL

+$6

Record

41%

2019-2860 (4879)

purplegattoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.27

Value

$28.27

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

6204-6345 (12549)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.96

Value

$9.53

PnL

+$0.57

Record

42%

1516-2129 (3645)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$5.62

Value

$4.75

PnL

+$0.23

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$2.75

PnL

-$0.25

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.44

Value

$0.53

PnL

+$0.1

Record

77%

12312-3779 (16091)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.3%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.