Will BLG be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?
10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 77¢ · $3K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 100%
$3.3K
$109.15
74.4¢ → 77.3¢
+4% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 10 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Anjun | Noavg 68.6¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$134.53 | 55% 4965-4026 (8991) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 88.3¢ | $780.1 | $738.46 | -$34.73 | 17% 393-1939 (2332) |
 balthazar | Noavg 73.1¢ | $358.01 | $370.19 | +$12.18 | 55% 25912-21183 (47095) |
BI Bigggggggg | Noavg 77.1¢ | $326.24 | $319.7 | -$6.53 | 44% 2939-3804 (6743) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 73.9¢ | $282.48 | $254.6 | +$2.11 | 35% 16906-31245 (48151) |
NO northdrawer | Noavg 74.9¢ | $108.55 | $109.55 | +$1 | 62% 13833-8580 (22413) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 74.6¢ | $35.07 | $35.51 | +$0.44 | 50% 7785-7688 (15473) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $30 | $30.22 | +$0.22 | 56% 18332-14683 (33015) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $15.6 | $15.11 | -$0.49 | 63% 12918-7608 (20526) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $3.35 | $3.78 | +$0.43 | 77% 11689-3583 (15272) |
AnjunInvested
$1,349.9
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$134.53
Record
55%
4965-4026 (8991)
IstarothInvested
$780.1
Value
$738.46
PnL
-$34.73
Record
17%
393-1939 (2332)
balthazarInvested
$358.01
Value
$370.19
PnL
+$12.18
Record
55%
25912-21183 (47095)
Invested
$326.24
Value
$319.7
PnL
-$6.53
Record
44%
2939-3804 (6743)
Invested
$282.48
Value
$254.6
PnL
+$2.11
Record
35%
16906-31245 (48151)
Invested
$108.55
Value
$109.55
PnL
+$1
Record
62%
13833-8580 (22413)
Invested
$35.07
Value
$35.51
PnL
+$0.44
Record
50%
7785-7688 (15473)
Invested
$30
Value
$30.22
PnL
+$0.22
Record
56%
18332-14683 (33015)
Invested
$15.6
Value
$15.11
PnL
-$0.49
Record
63%
12918-7608 (20526)
Invested
$3.35
Value
$3.78
PnL
+$0.43
Record
77%
11689-3583 (15272)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.