Will "Black Doves: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 90¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 18

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$39.4

Smart Money Entry

89.7¢ → 90.2¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,294

Combined PnL+$47.45

Yes4 traders

Total Value$16.65

Total Shares230

Combined PnL-$8.05

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA Gaditima	Noavg 90.3¢	$880.06	$902.98	+$22.93	46% 172-204 (376)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 87¢	$127.91	$136.12	+$8.21	53% 6319-5588 (11907)
TH TheWindKnowsmyName	Noavg 85.2¢	$187.72	$94.66	+$17.42	8% 11-133 (144)
0X 0x90Bf2dbB1ab3b3C1bDd76D73848AFCb19b5799EB-1757018988089<$100	Noavg 94.2¢	$65.92	$64.82	-$1.1	— 1-2 (3)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.6¢	$75.38	$11.48	-$7.39	40% 3363-5001 (8364)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.9¢	$6	$2.62	-$1.11	10% 9-78 (87)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$1.47	$2	+$0.53	53% 99-88 (187)
dips.CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.9¢	$0.63	$0.56	-$0.07	46% 593-709 (1302)

Gaditima

Invested

$880.06

Value

$902.98

PnL

+$22.93

Record

46%

172-204 (376)

cigarettes

Invested

$127.91

Value

$136.12

PnL

+$8.21

Record

53%

6319-5588 (11907)

TheWindKnowsmyName

Invested

$187.72

Value

$94.66

PnL

+$17.42

Record

11-133 (144)

0x90Bf2dbB1ab3b3C1bDd76D73848AFCb19b5799EB-1757018988089<$100

Invested

$65.92

Value

$64.82

PnL

-$1.1

Record

—

1-2 (3)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$75.38

Value

$11.48

PnL

-$7.39

Record

40%

3363-5001 (8364)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$2.62

PnL

-$1.11

Record

10%

9-78 (87)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.47

Value

PnL

+$0.53

Record

53%

99-88 (187)

dips.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.63

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$0.07

Record

46%

593-709 (1302)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.6%

90.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.17

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.