Will "Black Doves: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 96¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 18

Yes96¢No4¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$44.07

Smart Money Entry

93.2¢ → 95.7¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes96%

No4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,359

Combined PnL+$56.11

No3 traders

Total Value$9.77

Total Shares232

Combined PnL-$12.05

Yes — 63%No — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

73h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH TheWindKnowsmyName	Yesavg 93.8¢	$832.53	$651.71	-$5.49	18% 37-168 (205)
dips.	Yesavg 93¢	$422.88	$436.05	+$13.17	48% 1304-1393 (2697)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yesavg 93¢	$194	$201.5	+$7.5	48% 1239-1326 (2565)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Yesavg 82¢	$73.63	$26.03	+$45.78	38% 3815-6239 (10054)
GA Gaditima	Yesavg 93¢	$389.5	$8.5	-$4.85	49% 391-409 (800)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Noavg 6¢	$14.37	$5.29	-$9.08	15% 39-214 (253)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Noavg 5¢	$4.25	$3.66	-$0.6	30% 1175-2733 (3908)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 16¢	$3.2	$0.83	-$2.37	53% 7479-6612 (14091)

TheWindKnowsmyName

Yes

Invested

$832.53

Value

$651.71

PnL

-$5.49

Record

18%

37-168 (205)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$422.88

Value

$436.05

PnL

+$13.17

Record

48%

1304-1393 (2697)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Yes

Invested

$194

Value

$201.5

PnL

+$7.5

Record

48%

1239-1326 (2565)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Yes

Invested

$73.63

Value

$26.03

PnL

+$45.78

Record

38%

3815-6239 (10054)

Gaditima

Yes

Invested

$389.5

Value

$8.5

PnL

-$4.85

Record

49%

391-409 (800)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Invested

$14.37

Value

$5.29

PnL

-$9.08

Record

15%

39-214 (253)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Invested

$4.25

Value

$3.66

PnL

-$0.6

Record

30%

1175-2733 (3908)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$3.2

Value

$0.83

PnL

-$2.37

Record

53%

7479-6612 (14091)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

73h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.9%

95.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.