Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in November?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 80¢ · $5K held · ends Dec 1

Yes80¢No20¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$87.93

Smart Money Entry

79¢ → 79.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes80%

No21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares6,467

Combined PnL+$31.16

No2 traders

Total Value$68.06

Total Shares358

Combined PnL+$56.77

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
justdance	Yesavg 79.5¢	$4.8K	$4.8K	-$0.05	52% 2726-2550 (5276)
TO Tokor	Yesavg 73¢	$341.52	$371.93	+$30.41	62% 794-490 (1284)
SH Sharky6999CTR<$100	Noavg 4¢	$10.79	$58.56	+$47.77	98% 6912-167 (7079)
RI Rin2x<$100	Yesavg 82¢	$41	$40	-$0.75	86% 2155-340 (2495)
PippiTraderCTR<$100	Noavg 19.8¢	$39.5	$9.5	+$9	61% 313-200 (513)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Yesavg 79¢	$52.45	$4	+$1.55	36% 16059-28074 (44133)

justdance

Yes

Invested

$4,752

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

2726-2550 (5276)

Tokor

Yes

Invested

$341.52

Value

$371.93

PnL

+$30.41

Record

62%

794-490 (1284)

Sharky6999CTR<$100

Invested

$10.79

Value

$58.56

PnL

+$47.77

Record

98%

6912-167 (7079)

Rin2x<$100

Yes

Invested

$41

Value

$40

PnL

-$0.75

Record

86%

2155-340 (2495)

PippiTraderCTR<$100

Invested

$39.5

Value

$9.5

PnL

+$9

Record

61%

313-200 (513)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.45

Value

PnL

+$1.55

Record

36%

16059-28074 (44133)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 80%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.6%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.