Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in November?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 67¢ · $12K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$12.4K
$285.46
70.9¢ → 67¢
-5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 71.2¢ | $7.1K | $6.8K | -$384.39 | 51% 24-23 (47) |
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR | Noavg 25.3¢ | $2.5K | $3.3K | +$769.77 | — 2-1 (3) |
 justdance | Yesavg 69.7¢ | $2.4K | $2.3K | -$96.24 | — 3-11 (14) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 71.6¢ | $56.9 | $53.23 | -$3.67 | 40% 2992-4404 (7396) |
Invested
$7,145.44
Value
$6.8K
PnL
-$384.39
Record
51%
24-23 (47)
Invested
$2,527.71
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$769.77
Record
—
2-1 (3)
justdanceInvested
$2,403.57
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$96.24
Record
—
3-11 (14)
Invested
$56.9
Value
$53.23
PnL
-$3.67
Record
40%
2992-4404 (7396)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.