Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on November 9?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 100¢ · $37K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
$37.1K
$189.32
82.1¢ → 100¢
+22% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Mature
15h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 80.9¢ | $20.4K | $22.8K | +$2.4K | 51% 24-23 (47) |
 justdance | Noavg 75.3¢ | $8.0K | $9.0K | +$924.84 | — 3-11 (14) |
 KupaKeepKlan | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$0 | 100% 24-0 (24) |
EA Eager47259CTR | Yesavg 18.2¢ | $1.5K | $162.45 | $-1.1K | 38% 20-33 (53) |
CL CleanCoinFlipCTR | Yesavg 14.9¢ | $2.8K | $95.4 | -$926.41 | — 4-9 (13) |
SH shaillakhaniCTR | Yesavg 27.7¢ | $955.69 | $3.45 | -$952.24 | 1% 1-187 (188) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 29.3¢ | $155.37 | $0.53 | -$154.84 | 41% 2924-4137 (7061) |
Invested
$20,411.77
Value
$22.8K
PnL
+$2.4K
Record
51%
24-23 (47)
justdanceInvested
$8,032.18
Value
$9.0K
PnL
+$924.84
Record
—
3-11 (14)
KupaKeepKlanInvested
$5,034.96
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$0
Record
100%
24-0 (24)
Invested
$1,476.33
Value
$162.45
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
38%
20-33 (53)
Invested
$2,783.85
Value
$95.4
PnL
-$926.41
Record
—
4-9 (13)
Invested
$955.69
Value
$3.45
PnL
-$952.24
Record
1%
1-187 (188)
Invested
$155.37
Value
$0.53
PnL
-$154.84
Record
41%
2924-4137 (7061)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.