Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in November?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 81¢ · $8K held · ends Dec 1

Yes81¢No19¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

Total Value

$8.5K

Combined PnL

-$269.39

Smart Money Entry

81.3¢ → 80.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes81%

No20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares7,702

Combined PnL-$147.06

No2 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares13,636

Combined PnL-$122.33

Yes — 71%No — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
justdance	Yesavg 80.4¢	$4.7K	$4.6K	-$23.4	61% 20-13 (33)
EG Egozic86CTR	Noavg 17.9¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$119.95	— 12-1 (13)
EA Eager47259	Yesavg 84¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$72.24	49% 94-99 (193)
0X 0xDB5	Yesavg 89¢	$492.91	$39.83	-$52.15	73% 67-25 (92)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 18.6¢	$43.74	$26.36	-$2.38	40% 3214-4824 (8038)
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452<$100	Yesavg 80¢	$20.8	$20.93	+$0.13	66% 95-49 (144)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Yesavg 82.8¢	$75.67	$15.4	+$0.6	47% 742-833 (1575)

justdance

Yes

Invested

$4,661.19

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$23.4

Record

61%

20-13 (33)

Egozic86CTR

Invested

$2,415.63

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$119.95

Record

—

12-1 (13)

Eager47259

Yes

Invested

$1,520.62

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$72.24

Record

49%

94-99 (193)

0xDB5

Yes

Invested

$492.91

Value

$39.83

PnL

-$52.15

Record

73%

67-25 (92)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$43.74

Value

$26.36

PnL

-$2.38

Record

40%

3214-4824 (8038)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.8

Value

$20.93

PnL

+$0.13

Record

66%

95-49 (144)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Yes

Invested

$75.67

Value

$15.4

PnL

+$0.6

Record

47%

742-833 (1575)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 81%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.6%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.13

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.