Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (51%). 4 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in November?

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (36%) · Yes at 50¢ · $24K held · ends Dec 1

Yes50¢No50¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 36%

Total Value

$24.0K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

60.9¢ → 49.5¢

-19% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 11 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors No 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes50%

No51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$13.3K

Total Shares26,044

Combined PnL$-2.6K

No7 traders

Total Value$10.7K

Total Shares21,309

Combined PnL+$4.0K

Yes — 36%No — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

sniperYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BE beheo123CTR	Yesavg 59.7¢	$10.8K	$9.3K	$-1.6K	— 2-5 (7)
EG Egozic86	Noavg 27.3¢	$4.3K	$7.9K	+$3.6K	88% 21-3 (24)
MA MarioyCTR	Yesavg 53¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$100	— 5-4 (9)
RhabarberbarbarbarCTR	Yesavg 82.1¢	$2.4K	$1.5K	-$897.51	— 2-0 (2)
TO Tokor	Noavg 41.2¢	$968.1	$1.2K	+$195.76	53% 111-99 (210)
justdance	Noavg 40.5¢	$6.0K	$805.78	-$236.83	51% 28-27 (55)
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4	Noavg 40¢	$1.4K	$413.79	+$328.5	— 6-6 (12)
0X 0xDB5	Noavg 39¢	$309	$388.46	+$79.46	72% 102-39 (141)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 30.9¢	$122.31	$12.13	-$9.41	39% 3479-5356 (8835)
SU suntori<$100	Noavg 44¢	$10.74	$10.4	+$0.97	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
cryingbabydicer87CTR	Yesavg 49.1¢	$169	$2.85	-$4.46	48% 1182-1297 (2479)

beheo123CTR

Yes

Invested

$10,842.85

Value

$9.3K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

—

2-5 (7)

Egozic86

Invested

$4,275.01

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$3.6K

Record

88%

21-3 (24)

MarioyCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,649.97

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$100

Record

—

5-4 (9)

RhabarberbarbarbarCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,367.45

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$897.51

Record

—

2-0 (2)

Tokor

Invested

$968.1

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$195.76

Record

53%

111-99 (210)

justdance

Invested

$5,968.91

Value

$805.78

PnL

-$236.83

Record

51%

28-27 (55)

x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4

Invested

$1,435.6

Value

$413.79

PnL

+$328.5

Record

—

6-6 (12)

0xDB5

Invested

$309

Value

$388.46

PnL

+$79.46

Record

72%

102-39 (141)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$122.31

Value

$12.13

PnL

-$9.41

Record

39%

3479-5356 (8835)

suntori<$100

Invested

$10.74

Value

$10.4

PnL

+$0.97

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

cryingbabydicer87CTR

Yes

Invested

$169

Value

$2.85

PnL

-$4.46

Record

48%

1182-1297 (2479)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 50%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 11 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors No 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

sniperYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.