Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in November?
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 51¢ · $29K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
9
Yes 56%
$28.8K
$508.48
65.9¢ → 50.5¢
-23% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EG Egozic86CTR | Noavg 33.1¢ | $6.0K | $7.9K | +$1.9K | 90% 28-3 (31) |
 boyau | Yesavg 64.5¢ | $7.1K | $6.6K | -$500 | 38% 127-210 (337) |
 justdance | Yesavg 64.5¢ | $6.0K | $5.6K | -$416.77 | 53% 31-28 (59) |
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR | Noavg 35.5¢ | $3.9K | $4.2K | +$274.41 | 65% 24-13 (37) |
EA Eager47259 | Yesavg 71.5¢ | $4.8K | $4.0K | -$771.41 | 49% 191-196 (387) |
TO Tokor | Yesavg 54¢ | $399.6 | $444 | +$44.4 | 53% 130-115 (245) |
 cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100 | Noavg 44.5¢ | $98.89 | $4.81 | -$2.69 | 48% 1402-1515 (2917) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 63¢ | $13.6 | $4 | -$1.7 | 39% 3645-5777 (9422) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $1.86 | $1.84 | -$0.02 | 46% 2616-3104 (5720) |
Invested
$6,017.3
Value
$7.9K
PnL
+$1.9K
Record
90%
28-3 (31)
boyauInvested
$7,100
Value
$6.6K
PnL
-$500
Record
38%
127-210 (337)
justdanceInvested
$6,033.14
Value
$5.6K
PnL
-$416.77
Record
53%
31-28 (59)
Invested
$3,905.97
Value
$4.2K
PnL
+$274.41
Record
65%
24-13 (37)
Invested
$4,808.84
Value
$4.0K
PnL
-$771.41
Record
49%
191-196 (387)
Invested
$399.6
Value
$444
PnL
+$44.4
Record
53%
130-115 (245)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100Invested
$98.89
Value
$4.81
PnL
-$2.69
Record
48%
1402-1515 (2917)
Invested
$13.6
Value
$4
PnL
-$1.7
Record
39%
3645-5777 (9422)
Invested
$1.86
Value
$1.84
PnL
-$0.02
Record
46%
2616-3104 (5720)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.