Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in November?
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 55¢ · $25K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
9
Yes 56%
$24.6K
$165.24
62.3¢ → 54.5¢
-12% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+6 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EG Egozic86CTR | Noavg 38.8¢ | $8.9K | $11.5K | +$2.6K | 91% 29-3 (32) |
TO Tokor | Yesavg 55.2¢ | $5.5K | $5.4K | -$73.48 | 52% 139-129 (268) |
EA Eager47259 | Yesavg 70.3¢ | $5.3K | $3.7K | $-1.6K | 48% 209-222 (431) |
CL CleanCoinFlip | Yesavg 64.9¢ | $3.1K | $2.4K | -$679.14 | 53% 60-53 (113) |
TS tsihkodiivesCTR | Noavg 48¢ | $1.0K | $978.85 | -$53.78 | — 1-2 (3) |
 justdance | Yesavg 49.7¢ | $216 | $219.68 | +$3.68 | 51% 35-33 (68) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Yesavg 65.9¢ | $396.77 | $214.4 | -$80.33 | 39% 3708-5917 (9625) |
 PippiTraderCTR | Noavg 31.4¢ | $78.56 | $126.36 | +$47.8 | 47% 46-52 (98) |
 cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100 | Noavg 41.8¢ | $92.76 | $35.94 | +$5.08 | 50% 1577-1608 (3185) |
Invested
$8,945.16
Value
$11.5K
PnL
+$2.6K
Record
91%
29-3 (32)
Invested
$5,465.73
Value
$5.4K
PnL
-$73.48
Record
52%
139-129 (268)
Invested
$5,315.16
Value
$3.7K
PnL
$-1.6K
Record
48%
209-222 (431)
Invested
$3,063.24
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$679.14
Record
53%
60-53 (113)
Invested
$1,032.64
Value
$978.85
PnL
-$53.78
Record
—
1-2 (3)
justdanceInvested
$216
Value
$219.68
PnL
+$3.68
Record
51%
35-33 (68)
Invested
$396.77
Value
$214.4
PnL
-$80.33
Record
39%
3708-5917 (9625)
PippiTraderCTRInvested
$78.56
Value
$126.36
PnL
+$47.8
Record
47%
46-52 (98)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100Invested
$92.76
Value
$35.94
PnL
+$5.08
Record
50%
1577-1608 (3185)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.