Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in November?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 94¢ · $12K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$11.7K
$24.52
93¢ → 93.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA Marioy | Noavg 93¢ | $11.1K | $11.1K | +$61.44 | 81% 250-58 (308) |
19 196874353278CTR | Yesavg 7¢ | $308.08 | $262.2 | -$24.02 | 45% 212-263 (475) |
 justdanceCTR | Yesavg 6.9¢ | $226.72 | $213.12 | -$13.61 | 52% 2726-2550 (5276) |
TO TokorCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $30 | $32.5 | +$2.5 | 62% 794-490 (1284) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $25.81 | $25.68 | -$0.14 | 76% 11349-3523 (14872) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $4.95 | $3.3 | -$1.65 | 36% 16052-28068 (44120) |
Invested
$11,052.87
Value
$11.1K
PnL
+$61.44
Record
81%
250-58 (308)
Invested
$308.08
Value
$262.2
PnL
-$24.02
Record
45%
212-263 (475)
justdanceCTRInvested
$226.72
Value
$213.12
PnL
-$13.61
Record
52%
2726-2550 (5276)
Invested
$30
Value
$32.5
PnL
+$2.5
Record
62%
794-490 (1284)
Invested
$25.81
Value
$25.68
PnL
-$0.14
Record
76%
11349-3523 (14872)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$3.3
PnL
-$1.65
Record
36%
16052-28068 (44120)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.