Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in November?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 78¢ · $28K held · ends Dec 1

Yes23¢No77¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$28.0K

Combined PnL

-$909.73

Smart Money Entry

86.5¢ → 77.5¢

-10% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$26.3K

Total Shares32,383

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares7,792

Combined PnL+$867.88

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4	Noavg 86.7¢	$13.0K	$12.1K	-$849.99	64% 14-8 (22)
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 87.1¢	$12.3K	$11.4K	-$867.25	68% 208-98 (306)
LO lovedudley	Noavg 82¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$30	20% 30-119 (149)
CL CleanCoinFlipCTR	Yesavg 11.1¢	$679.27	$1.4K	+$692.22	54% 61-53 (114)
TO TokorCTR	Yesavg 17.5¢	$172.97	$187.77	+$14.8	52% 141-130 (271)
EA Eager47259CTR	Yesavg 9.7¢	$128.85	$159.37	+$160.85	49% 212-223 (435)
PippiTrader	Noavg 89.1¢	$161.31	$140.28	-$21.03	47% 46-52 (98)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 82.6¢	$62.15	$58.31	-$3.84	38% 3738-6054 (9792)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Noavg 92¢	$46	$40.5	-$5.5	50% 1618-1648 (3266)

x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4

Invested

$12,999.98

Value

$12.1K

PnL

-$849.99

Record

64%

14-8 (22)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$12,299.94

Value

$11.4K

PnL

-$867.25

Record

68%

208-98 (306)

lovedudley

Invested

$2,459.98

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$30

Record

20%

30-119 (149)

CleanCoinFlipCTR

Yes

Invested

$679.27

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$692.22

Record

54%

61-53 (114)

TokorCTR

Yes

Invested

$172.97

Value

$187.77

PnL

+$14.8

Record

52%

141-130 (271)

Eager47259CTR

Yes

Invested

$128.85

Value

$159.37

PnL

+$160.85

Record

49%

212-223 (435)

PippiTrader

Invested

$161.31

Value

$140.28

PnL

-$21.03

Record

47%

46-52 (98)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$62.15

Value

$58.31

PnL

-$3.84

Record

38%

3738-6054 (9792)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$46

Value

$40.5

PnL

-$5.5

Record

50%

1618-1648 (3266)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.7%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.