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paddaaNoNo
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Yes
IstarothCTR<$100YesYes
2B9SCTR<$100YesYes
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will Bill Harvey win the next Hobart mayoral election?
Resolved No. 29% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
7
No 100%
Total Value
$165.96
Combined PnL
$45.23
Smart Money Signal
No
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No2 traders
Total Value$165.96
Total Shares166
Combined PnL+$45.23
Yes5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
No — 29%Yes — 71%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
paddaa | Noavg 81¢ | $120.74 | $165.96 | +$45.23 | 57% 823-628 (1451) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | — | — | +$0 | 77% 11174-3429 (14603) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | — | — | +$0 | 56% 15281-11831 (27112) |
IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 21% 295-1083 (1378) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 36% 15244-27336 (42580) |
2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 18% 3793-17172 (20965) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 1124-1007 (2131) |
paddaaInvested
$120.74
Value
$165.96
PnL
+$45.23
Record
57%
823-628 (1451)
EL
Elias.Thornwell<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
77%
11174-3429 (14603)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
15281-11831 (27112)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
21%
295-1083 (1378)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
15244-27336 (42580)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
3793-17172 (20965)
SN
SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
1124-1007 (2131)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xc660b7f7...e0618c
Slug
will-bill-harvey-win-the-2026-hobart-mayoral-election