Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 13 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Bijan Robinson win the 2026 NFL MVP?

13 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $67 held · ends Feb 15, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Feb 15, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$66.71

Combined PnL

-$230.18

Smart Money Entry

2.2¢ → 0.1¢

-98% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes13 traders

Total Value$66.71

Total Shares12,120

Combined PnL-$230.18

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Late

138h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN ancianoCTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$176.16	$33.02	-$143.14	55% 1563-1294 (2857)
0X 0x53eCc53E7CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$8.89	$10.16	-$7.71	44% 516-666 (1182)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$20.25	$5.59	-$14.66	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
CR crckrCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$31.06	$5.07	-$25.99	28% 797-2091 (2888)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$8	$4.4	-$3.6	19% 2981-12794 (15775)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$12.43	$2.97	-$9.47	40% 1619-2432 (4051)
NO northstockCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$7.86	$1.65	-$6.21	39% 259-407 (666)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$3.28	$1.2	-$5.35	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$3.79	$1.1	-$4.9	55% 3191-2650 (5841)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$53.48	$0.89	-$6.09	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$2.9	$0.52	-$2.39	50% 2630-2578 (5208)
FO forgotmydinnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$0.6	$0.11	-$0.49	18% 109-507 (616)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$0.21	$0.04	-$0.17	55% 39043-31788 (70831)

ancianoCTR

Yes

Invested

$176.16

Value

$33.02

PnL

-$143.14

Record

55%

1563-1294 (2857)

0x53eCc53E7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.89

Value

$10.16

PnL

-$7.71

Record

44%

516-666 (1182)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.25

Value

$5.59

PnL

-$14.66

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

crckrCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.06

Value

$5.07

PnL

-$25.99

Record

28%

797-2091 (2888)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$4.4

PnL

-$3.6

Record

19%

2981-12794 (15775)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.43

Value

$2.97

PnL

-$9.47

Record

40%

1619-2432 (4051)

northstockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.86

Value

$1.65

PnL

-$6.21

Record

39%

259-407 (666)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.28

Value

$1.2

PnL

-$5.35

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.79

Value

$1.1

PnL

-$4.9

Record

55%

3191-2650 (5841)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.48

Value

$0.89

PnL

-$6.09

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.9

Value

$0.52

PnL

-$2.39

Record

50%

2630-2578 (5208)

forgotmydinnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$0.49

Record

18%

109-507 (616)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.17

Record

55%

39043-31788 (70831)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Late

138h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.