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CoinTrick<$100NoYesYes
HaradwaithCTR<$100YesYes
balthazarCTR<$100YesNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will Bhutan come in 3rd place at Eurovision Asia 2026?
Resolved No. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Yes 83%
Total Value
$60
Combined PnL
-$12.48
Smart Money Signal
Yes
5 of 7 top traders (71%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No2 traders
Total Value$60
Total Shares60
Combined PnL-$0.21
Yes5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares216
Combined PnL-$12.27
No — 29%Yes — 71%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CoinTrick<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $59.94 | $60 | +$0.06 | 99% 257-1 (258) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $3.28 | — | -$3.28 | 42% 2632-3664 (6296) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $12.04 | — | -$1.49 | 39% 3661-5820 (9481) |
HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $3.76 | — | -$1.94 | 30% 197-458 (655) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $189.48 | — | -$5.06 | 29% 3215-8065 (11280) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $0.5 | — | -$0.5 | 43% 5103-6732 (11835) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $12.67 | — | -$0.27 | 37% 1544-2643 (4187) |
CoinTrick<$100Invested
$59.94
Value
$60
PnL
+$0.06
Record
99%
257-1 (258)
E4
e46m3CTR<$100Invested
$3.28
Value
—
PnL
-$3.28
Record
42%
2632-3664 (6296)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
$12.04
Value
—
PnL
-$1.49
Record
39%
3661-5820 (9481)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$3.76
Value
—
PnL
-$1.94
Record
30%
197-458 (655)
QW
qwen300.fundCTRInvested
$189.48
Value
—
PnL
-$5.06
Record
29%
3215-8065 (11280)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$0.5
Value
—
PnL
-$0.5
Record
43%
5103-6732 (11835)
AN
anothercoin<$100Invested
$12.67
Value
—
PnL
-$0.27
Record
37%
1544-2643 (4187)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x3670c705...89c81f
Slug
will-bhutan-come-in-3rd-place-at-eurovision-asia-2026