Will BetBoom Win the PGL Major Singapore 2026?

13 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (93%) · No at 97¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 15

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Tue, Dec 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 93%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$0.02

Smart Money Entry

97.7¢ → 97.5¢

+0% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 14 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,800

Combined PnL+$0.11

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.93

Total Shares39

Combined PnL-$0.1

No — 93%Yes — 7%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Late

83h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 93% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 97.7¢	$639.72	$639.72	-$0	50% 4494-4439 (8933)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 97.6¢	$261.85	$262.03	+$0.18	52% 5324-4829 (10153)
QU quietparcel	Noavg 97.7¢	$175.92	$175.86	-$0.06	10% 25-236 (261)
LI Likaseent	Noavg 97.7¢	$144.47	$144.47	-$0	26% 360-1007 (1367)
KA kaxel78	Noavg 97.7¢	$144.47	$144.47	-$0	28% 522-1370 (1892)
ZE zerone777	Noavg 97.7¢	$144.47	$144.47	-$0	30% 511-1182 (1693)
VA Vale54holi<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$97.1	$97.1	-$0	28% 367-935 (1302)
PO pollo07<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$48.85	$48.85	-$0	27% 499-1317 (1816)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$29.28	$29.31	+$0.03	5% 16-322 (338)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$29.34	$29.31	-$0.03	— 0-13 (13)
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$25.32	$25.32	-$0	44% 1068-1376 (2444)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$11.85	$11.85	-$0	32% 205-443 (648)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$5.67	$5.67	-$0.01	35% 2910-5328 (8238)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$1.03	$0.93	-$0.1	41% 3010-4415 (7425)

balthazar

Invested

$639.72

Value

$639.72

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

4494-4439 (8933)

cigarettes

Invested

$261.85

Value

$262.03

PnL

+$0.18

Record

52%

5324-4829 (10153)

quietparcel

Invested

$175.92

Value

$175.86

PnL

-$0.06

Record

10%

25-236 (261)

Likaseent

Invested

$144.47

Value

$144.47

PnL

-$0

Record

26%

360-1007 (1367)

kaxel78

Invested

$144.47

Value

$144.47

PnL

-$0

Record

28%

522-1370 (1892)

zerone777

Invested

$144.47

Value

$144.47

PnL

-$0

Record

30%

511-1182 (1693)

Vale54holi<$100

Invested

$97.1

Value

$97.1

PnL

-$0

Record

28%

367-935 (1302)

pollo07<$100

Invested

$48.85

Value

$48.85

PnL

-$0

Record

27%

499-1317 (1816)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$29.28

Value

$29.31

PnL

+$0.03

Record

16-322 (338)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$29.34

Value

$29.31

PnL

-$0.03

Record

—

0-13 (13)

alex20011<$100

Invested

$25.32

Value

$25.32

PnL

-$0

Record

44%

1068-1376 (2444)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$11.85

Value

$11.85

PnL

-$0

Record

32%

205-443 (648)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$5.67

Value

$5.67

PnL

-$0.01

Record

35%

2910-5328 (8238)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.03

Value

$0.93

PnL

-$0.1

Record

41%

3010-4415 (7425)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 14 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Late

83h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 93% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.5%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.