Will Beni Rae Harmony be the next White House Press Secretary?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 95¢ · $692 held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$691.59

Combined PnL

-$4.52

Smart Money Entry

96.4¢ → 95.2¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$669.2

Total Shares677

Combined PnL+$15.61

Yes3 traders

Total Value$22.39

Total Shares467

Combined PnL-$20.13

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SH shiifoo	Noavg 97.6¢	$493.59	$504.93	+$11.35	60% 3282-2203 (5485)
paddaa	Noavg 92.7¢	$160	$164.26	+$4.26	57% 817-625 (1442)
LI lissartterCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.9¢	$37.1	$10.56	-$26.54	42% 5200-7124 (12324)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$3.85	$10.34	+$6.49	36% 15021-27071 (42092)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$2.63	$1.49	-$0.08	77% 11143-3403 (14546)

shiifoo

Invested

$493.59

Value

$504.93

PnL

+$11.35

Record

60%

3282-2203 (5485)

paddaa

Invested

$160

Value

$164.26

PnL

+$4.26

Record

57%

817-625 (1442)

lissartterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.1

Value

$10.56

PnL

-$26.54

Record

42%

5200-7124 (12324)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.85

Value

$10.34

PnL

+$6.49

Record

36%

15021-27071 (42092)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.63

Value

$1.49

PnL

-$0.08

Record

77%

11143-3403 (14546)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.3%

95.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.