Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (79%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will "Behemoth!" be nominated for Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 22¢ · $127 held · ends Mar 15, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$127.02
$5.06
20.6¢ → 21.5¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 22%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 79%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $44.68 | $50.62 | +$5.94 | 39% 1043-1627 (2670) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $47.57 | $40.91 | -$6.66 | 41% 3007-4413 (7420) |
GA GaditimaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $18 | $21.5 | +$3.5 | 47% 66-74 (140) |
AU auros2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $11.72 | $14 | +$2.28 | 85% 62-11 (73) |
Invested
$44.68
Value
$50.62
PnL
+$5.94
Record
39%
1043-1627 (2670)
Invested
$47.57
Value
$40.91
PnL
-$6.66
Record
41%
3007-4413 (7420)
Invested
$18
Value
$21.5
PnL
+$3.5
Record
47%
66-74 (140)
Invested
$11.72
Value
$14
PnL
+$2.28
Record
85%
62-11 (73)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
21.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.