Will Beauty And A Beat – Justin Bieber & Nicki Minaj be the top song for 2026?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 99¢ · $385 held · ends Dec 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$385.3

Combined PnL

$5.7

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 99.4¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$369.26

Total Shares371

Combined PnL-$1.42

Yes6 traders

Total Value$16.04

Total Shares2,674

Combined PnL+$7.12

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 99.8¢	$291.49	$289.74	-$1.06	53% 23272-20444 (43716)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$39.96	$39.76	-$0.2	35% 4427-8266 (12693)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$59.87	$29.82	-$0.11	47% 8692-9946 (18638)
BU buoysCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.9¢	$2	$12	+$10	46% 736-881 (1617)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$9.99	$9.94	-$0.05	49% 9352-9925 (19277)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR	Yesavg 1.6¢	$300	$1.8	-$2.96	39% 306-488 (794)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.46	$1.39	+$0.92	20% 2805-11188 (13993)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$0.58	$0.38	-$0.2	29% 2495-6009 (8504)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$0.7	$0.26	-$0.43	51% 152-146 (298)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.42	$0.21	-$0.21	35% 2058-3741 (5799)

cigarettes

Invested

$291.49

Value

$289.74

PnL

-$1.06

Record

53%

23272-20444 (43716)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$39.96

Value

$39.76

PnL

-$0.2

Record

35%

4427-8266 (12693)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$59.87

Value

$29.82

PnL

-$0.11

Record

47%

8692-9946 (18638)

buoysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$12

PnL

+$10

Record

46%

736-881 (1617)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$9.94

PnL

-$0.05

Record

49%

9352-9925 (19277)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR

Yes

Invested

$300

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$2.96

Record

39%

306-488 (794)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.46

Value

$1.39

PnL

+$0.92

Record

20%

2805-11188 (13993)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.58

Value

$0.38

PnL

-$0.2

Record

29%

2495-6009 (8504)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.7

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$0.43

Record

51%

152-146 (298)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.42

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$0.21

Record

35%

2058-3741 (5799)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.