Will "BbY WOW - KAROL G, Judeline, rusowsky" be the #1 song this week?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 94¢ · $202 held · ends Nov 13

Yes94¢No6¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$202.28

Combined PnL

-$4

Smart Money Entry

91.7¢ → 93.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes94%

No7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$178.03

Total Shares179

Combined PnL+$0.16

No6 traders

Total Value$24.25

Total Shares272

Combined PnL-$4.16

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WA WarriorH	Yesavg 92.5¢	$142.21	$141	-$1.21	— 0-12 (12)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Yesavg 93¢	$19.05	$18.86	-$0.19	— 1-9 (10)
SH shovelingdigging<$100	Yesavg 85¢	$16.6	$18.17	+$1.56	— 1-6 (7)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 13.3¢	$9.88	$6.71	-$3.17	41% 3007-4413 (7420)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Noavg 9.5¢	$5.54	$5.26	-$0.28	11% 35-271 (306)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 9¢	$4.5	$4.5	+$0	35% 2910-5328 (8238)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$4	$3.6	-$0.4	52% 5320-4824 (10144)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Noavg 8¢	$3.19	$3.01	-$0.18	— 1-10 (11)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$1.3	$1.17	-$0.13	79% 177-47 (224)

WarriorH

Yes

Invested

$142.21

Value

$141

PnL

-$1.21

Record

—

0-12 (12)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.05

Value

$18.86

PnL

-$0.19

Record

—

1-9 (10)

shovelingdigging<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.6

Value

$18.17

PnL

+$1.56

Record

—

1-6 (7)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$9.88

Value

$6.71

PnL

-$3.17

Record

41%

3007-4413 (7420)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

$5.54

Value

$5.26

PnL

-$0.28

Record

11%

35-271 (306)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

2910-5328 (8238)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$3.6

PnL

-$0.4

Record

52%

5320-4824 (10144)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Invested

$3.19

Value

$3.01

PnL

-$0.18

Record

—

1-10 (11)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$1.3

Value

$1.17

PnL

-$0.13

Record

79%

177-47 (224)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.